Q1 US GDP was a mixed bag. Although consumption was relatively firm, the headline number was a miss versus the consensus and also weaker than most nowcasting frameworks had implied. PCE inflation numbers were cautiously encouraging, with the demand-driven contribution to core softening further in March. Eurozone survey data continues to tick higher, but most prints remain net pessimistic/weak overall. Q1 Swedish GDP surprised to the upside, but the March monthly number was weaker than we would have expected. This, plus very soft retail sales numbers, reduces our conviction that the economy may be past its trough.
The week ahead sees policy decisions by the Fed and the ECB, as well as a number of tier-1 data releases. In particular, April ISM numbers and the jobs report will give an early steer on Q2.
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