Summary
Labour market data continues to track above expectations, with Wednesday’s JOLTS number surprising to the upside and today’s jobs report also coming in strong. May’s payrolls number beat the consensus by a wide margin, with +339k jobs added and upward revisions to April and March. Total average hourly earnings growth softened a little but remained elevated, while hourly earnings among production/nonsupervisory employees accelerated further. The household survey side of the report was weaker, with U3 and U6 both softening. Market pricing for the June FOMC has come towards our prior view, and we adjust our Fed probabilities to reflect today’s data.
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