Summary
January and February’s jobs reports came in strong, with payrolls outturns in particular surprising to the upside. At the time we argued that underlying strength in the numbers was likely being flattered by one-off factors and methodological noise – in particular, mild weather conditions appeared to be boosting BLS payrolls prints versus weather-adjusted numbers. In this note, we review the March jobs report, which we read as softer than February’s release. Although unemployment rate measures ticked tighter and the pace of payrolls gains remained healthy, the slowdown in job additions was notable and broad. We then consider whether the transitory payrolls boost provided by mild weather in January and February is likely to have flipped to a transitory drag in March, which may persist into Q2.
Roadshow: 24th - 28th April
Our Q2 roadshow will run during this week, and we’re offering clients and prospects:
- 30 minute outlook presentations with Q&A for institutions.
- A webinar consisting of a 30 minute presentation, with an additional 15 mins for Q&A, on Thursday 27th at 3pm London time / 4pm CEST / 10am New York.
To register your interest please reach out on here or to robert.brown@ashridgemacro.com, specifying whether you’re interested in joining the webinar or receiving an institutional presentation.
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